rubbishcorp® Vs The Future / Some Random Thoughts For 2010
These thoughts are in no particular order, neither are they rounded to a specific number or individual theme. They are all things that I have a keen interest in and write about regularly here on this blog.
That There Cloud.
The only thing stopping the mass adoption of cloud technology is peoples reluctance to give up owning stuff. New household brands like Spotify, Apple and Google are all making the whole thing seem a lot more friendly and are paving the way for that mass adoption. Unsurprisingly they’re not alone, many others are testing the waters – figuring out a model that works for them.
Meanwhile the hype and fear has now passed and so people can more easily get onboard. 2010 will see the flood gates open and the migration of our complete digital lives to a online storage facility begin. The only question now is how much are you going to pay to store and access all your digital stuff?
Mobile.
The market for downloadable applications will continue to grow at a fearsome pace. Surprisingly, and despite all the hype, Apple’s App store still only accounts for 13% of the total market share for downloadable apps where Symbian/S60 (Nokia) accounts for 46%. The Open handset alliance, oFono (Nokia/Intel) and others are beginning to suggest/realize feasible alternatives to Apple in the smart phone market. Of course, iPhone will continue to grow, but now so will it’s competitors. Given the might of one in particular, I wouldn’t close the book just yet.
For agencies to succeed in mobile marketing this year, they’ll need to provide people with a measurable degree of utility, relevance, or entertainment (no surprises there). That success can and has come from developing mobile applications for smart devices. It’s pretty rich ground given the billion + downloads from the app store and with other platforms growing expect many more marketers trying their hand at utility based consumer communication.
Augmented Reality
Ubiquitous GPS and compasses in mobile devices will make augmented reality increasingly indispensable. There are already numerous applications for iPhone and Android mobiles that assist us in ‘finding places we need’ and the trend isn’t about to ease up. Location-based gaming will also continue to spread, littering our virtual worlds with puzzles, easter eggs and big huge monsters. On top of that navigation displays will switch from top down map-based action to arrows on the ‘real’ street. More remarkably you ‘ll need only to point your camera at someones face to find out who they are and what their name is.
iPTV
This year broadband-enabled (iP)TV will finally get fully piped into the lounge of the masses. It’s been a long time coming but it should mean you actually get a truly ‘on-demand’ TV experience on a TV screen in that big lounge. And it won’t just be like TV, you can be sure each broadcaster will integrate social networking and media applications into their offerings to keep you glued to their offering. What’s really interesting is that Apple is moving towards this ‘living-room’ space while the other electronics giants are trying to move into Apples area…
Regardless, TV viewing is up and people want the choice the internet provides, 2010 will be the year they get it – the only questions are what and who from?
3D TV
If iPTV wasn’t enough, 3D TV will also be bursting into your living room over the next few months. While manufacturers, content providers and broadcasters (like Sky who are planning to film the world cup in 3D) are embracing the revolution, a question mark still remains over whether consumers will be as willing. Viewers will of course need to buy a shiny new TV to marvel at the 3D pictures and the manufacturers have not yet confirmed how much their 3D sets will cost. I wouldn’t bet against it initially being very expensive. Plus, there’s the tiny matter of those silly glasses; yes, you will need to wear special spectacles to watch, that is until the second generation, which will apparently do the 3D magic automatically. It’s clear that the tech will need to overcome some significant problems before consumers get as (cash on counter) excited by the prospect of 3D as the content providers and electronics companies so clearly are. Then perhaps that’s only because it’s a lot more difficult to pirate a 3D experience, right?
Gaming.
If there’s one thing that isn’t conjecture in this post it’s that gaming will continue to lead the way as the most rapidly evolving and creative industry around. Most notably the PS3 will continue to see a bit of a sales bounce. The trend will continue into 2010, when hotly anticipated exclusives like God of War III, Gran Turismo 5, MAG, Heavy Rain and The Last Guardian start rolling out. As more and more people jump on the HD bandwagon Sony’s built-in Blu-ray make it a compelling all-in-one home entertainment machine. Plus there are those awesome rumors that a PS3 can run 3D games with little more than a tiny software update (and a 3D TV of course). This combo should see the PS3 become a little more competitive with the Wii (HD?) and the Xbox 360, even with the arrival of Project Natal.
On that note Natal is slated for 2010 release. Don’t get your hopes up though, even if the tech makes it to ours shelves (which I think may be a little hopeful), it’s unlikely to make much of an initial impact as few developers will be prepared enough to make full use of the systems potential. Rest assured that when they do you’ll sure as hell know about it.
Social Media.
In 2010 we’ll begin to see social networks focus more on specific niche models over just general socializing/annoying old school friends. It’s a natural evolution, services like Ning are already gaining share and the reality is that people are more willing to pay for access to specialty networking groups, which makes the proposition way more attractive to the major players.
Payment models will exclude advertising/spammers (see below) and will enable higher-quality offerings for the user – this the key to successfully monetizing the networks and the big guns know it.
Corps (including this one, obviously) will begin to include social media initiatives on a larger scale, and higher up the food chain. Many will move beyond reliance on marketing initiatives and will begin to engage their own social media experts/departments, if they haven’t done so already.
Many organizations are waking up to time-sucking qualities of social networks in their office spaces and so may ban its use. It doesn’t take a genius to work out that employees will seek to feed their social media addictions on their mobile devices and as a result, sales of ’social software enabled’ smartphones will be on the up.
The big loser this year is poor old electronic mail. Social Networking sites are beginning to own information and content sharing, Mozilla (creator of the worlds biggest browser) is on the offensive with Raindrop and, although it got off off to a shaky start, I can’t see Google Wave laying down without a fight. It’s not over yet, but the writing is definitely on the ewall (sorry).
Apple.
At the time of post it seems Apple is intent on releasing a 10″ iPhone. Supposedly, it will be very pretty, reasonably priced and you’ll be able to be constantly connected to the interwebs with the thing. Sounds good on paper but the reality may be very different. You have to ask yourself why would you want a 10″ iPhone if you already have a regular iPhone that fits in your pocket and a Macbook for everything else?*
*Of course I have got this horribly wrong – everyone desperately wants a 10″ iPhone.
And finally- pay-per-view advertising?
A prominent trend, and something a little more worrying for the industry, is advertising as a punishment for being poor. Spotify is a good example (of course there are many more) as in it offers a premium service that is effectively the same an the basic service only devoid of advertising. And then, more interestingly, there are services like Blyk, that offer highly desirable free stuff, just so long as you can prove you have interacted with the sponsors. Services like Blyk differ in as much as the ad content can be carefully targeted, therefore relevant and useful.
We all know ad cash is increasingly going to a much more diverse and fragmented array of marketing disciplines; social networks, mobile, search engines and PR etc. This effectively means advertisers have to work much harder to get your attention, I’m just not sure forcing people to interact with ad’s is really the best solution in the long term.
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